Saturday, July 13, 2019

Mid Year Review for 2019

More than half of 2019 has passed, and once again, it is time to do a mid-year review of my portfolio performance.

As of today, STI YTD performance is positive, up 9.4 percent (source from Bloomberg)

Thankfully, my portfolio has performed well YTD. As of writing, it is up 21.2% (before adjustments) and up 15.6% (if capital injections and withdrawals are taken into consideration).

This performance is encouraging, especially when compared to the dismal performance last year. It also compares favourably with the benchmark STI YTD.

From now till the year end, I hope that my portfolio can continue to do well, perhaps increase by more than 35%? Or at the minimum, improve on the current performance and outperform the benchmark.

Nevertheless, I am wary that whilst the stock market has reached highs, the economic figures are not very rosy with the ongoing trade wars, tensions, economic restructuring and displacement and so on. In fact, the big news today indicated that "Singapore economy growth slows to 0.1% in Q2, lowest in a decade"! (see link below)

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-economy-growth-gdp-q2-lowest-in-decade-11713694

Going forward, I will need to be nimble and react accordingly. Some sectors are still experiencing much hurt. Just this week, a friend from Oil & Gas sector lost his job. Whilst the STI is doing fairly decent, the main sector contributing to its positive performance are mainly REITs. In the broader economy, many sectors are still hurting and there is a need to be selective and I hope that my stock selection and allocation ability will continue to give me an edge in the months and years to come.

Hope to be able to report even better portfolio performance come year end!

Signing out,
Ming

Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Happy New Year 2019 and review of 2018

Another year has passed. It is 2019 already. Work has kept me busy these few months. (I just came back from a work trip overseas few weeks ago). Consequently, the calculation of last year's portfolio performance has been delayed. Below is my portfolio performance. Last year's portfolio performance was very poor. Period.

Year
My Portfolio
(inclusive of capital injections)
My Portfolio (less capital injections)
STI
2010
+11.7 (annualized)
-0.8 (annualized)
+10.1
2011
35.3
17
-17
2012
25.9
9.9
19.7
2013
32
19.9
0
2014
53.7
44.2
6.2
2015
-0.6
-9.1
-14.3
2016
82.4
74.7
-0.1
2017
66.6
57.7
18.1
2018
-18.6
-22
-9.8


This poor performance was anticipated earlier in my mid year review, where I had highlighted the fact that I was down 15% (vs a decline of 5% for the STI). But still, I am very disappointed that I could not halt the decline further.

Much work is needed to rehabilitate my portfolio's performance for the year ahead. Hopefully, I will do better this year. This was also the first time in more than five years that I underperformed the STI index. Hence, I am taking last year's lacklustre performance very seriously and will need to seriously rethink my strategy going forward.

If I am unable to cope with both work and investment, I will need to consider putting more money into safer investment (such as fixed deposits, bonds, STI ETF) and less money into active stock selection. Consequently, I have to accept investment performance that is potentially less lucrative than that from active stock picking.

 I had started a process of rebuilding my investments since the middle of last year. Focusing on the fundamentals. Reflect and bring back the good practices that allowed me to over-perform in the prior years. I hope I will be eventually be able to rebuild, recoup, regain and perform better for this year! 

Happy New Year 2019! Many happy returns for the new year ahead! HUAT AH! 

Monday, July 16, 2018

Mid Year Review for 2018

Half of year 2018 has just gone by.. Trade wars, yield curve, world cup

How has my portfolio performed?... one word. BAD.

Preliminary estimates show that it is down around 15% (and it is only half a year).. whilst STI is down around 5%.. This is much cause for concern as it is one of the few times I have underperformed the STI benchmark.

Preliminary evaluation of my mistakes are as follows:
1) Over-diversification/lack of proper diversification..
2) Sentimental/feeling emotional about company
3) Buying into companies with low liquidity
4) Overconfidence/over-bullish about company prospects
5) Overestimation of one's ability/venturing beyond one's area of competence

Granted, I have been kept busy with work (and some "extra-curricular activities") but my portfolio performance is POOR and much reflection and work is needed to turnaround this mess.

I need to go back to the fundamentals. Reflect and bring back the good practices that allowed me to over-perform in the prior years.

Hopefully, I can rebuild, recoup, regain and finish this year strong (or at least flat).

Anyway, Felicitations to France for winning the World Cup 2018 :)