Friday, December 31, 2010

Happy New Year

Wishing all readers a happy new year!

Hope that the stock market yield healthy returns in the year ahead!

And you made good profits in past year 2010 :)

Cheers

ming

p.s. Time to think of a new year resolution. (Uh-oh, I forgotten about my 2010 resolution already...)

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Reflections on my first six months in the stock market (Part 2)

I must admit that these six months have been very bumpy, the market has been very volatile. When I started investing, the Fed was having a deflation and poor / low economic growth dilemma...

But alas, the Fed resorted to the all-famous "quantitative easing" aka the "printing of money" to devalue the US dollar, which resulted in increased liquidity and people started putting their money into the stock market and boom... the stock market made a strong rally...

Returning back to the local situation, Singapore enjoyed a strong double-digit growth for the year of 2010. As a result of the strong economic performance locally, local companies mostly reported good earnings (except for a few companies like Wilmar) and correspondingly, the stock market also rose strongly...

Then there are also other big events that happened that in some way or another affected the stock market - like the mini Korean War, the Europe Debt Crisis (PIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain), US Mid Term Elections...

I find that one should not over-react (read: panic) when such events occur. Such events would likely only have a temporary effect on the stock market. Eg. The North Korean missile bombing would likely not affect the fundamentals of the companies I have shares in...

One should always carefully evaluate the impact of such events, and decide if the news would have a short-term or long-term impact (beyond the obvious poor market sentiment likely to be experienced). And I have learnt my lesson well and have over these months learnt to keep my emotions at bay when investing.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Reflections on my first six months in the stock market (Part 1)

Time really flies. More than six months have passed since I first set up my trading account with Phillip Securities and it is almost six months since I bought my first stock using my own trading account.

Although my stock investment / trading journey has been rather bumpy like a roller-coaster, and my own stock performance has not beaten the STI, I am overall still very pleased and satisfied that I have learnt quite a lot these few months.

Below are some of my lessons I learnt from my painful losses:

1) Genting SP - never buy on rumours, do your homework before you buy (both fundamental and technical analysis) ; stock prices dont go up indefintely!

2) Capitaland - dont try to catch a falling knife...

3) Wilmar - sell on news, especially when profit drop by so much...

4) Tiger Air, Fragrance Group - dont panic sell...

Then, there are those pleasant surprises and happy moments:

5) Noble Group - Bought a few days before it had a trading halt (and announced that it was acquiring an American company) and stock price rallied strongly thereafter.

6) GLP - my first ipo since I set up my own trading account ; made a decent profit in a short time.

7) SembMar, Golden Agri - made good profits in both of them.

8) And many other companies - made decent profits in them too.

I admit that during these six months I have done a lot of "quick trades", many of my stocks I have held them for a few months and sold them thereafter. For the next year, I would like to move towards "longer-term investments", and learn to "value-invest" like Warren Buffett, although not totally forgoing the joy of "quick trades".

Sunday, December 26, 2010

On my radar - Dec 26

Below are stocks that I am looking at this week. I may or may not trade these stocks and may also be observing some for educational purposes.

a) Kim Eng - a week after the announcement of parties interested in acquiring Kim Eng, Kim Eng stock price rose very strongly (above upper Bolinger Band - last fri to thu)...but has consolidated on wed and thu, before climbing 5 cents to 2.46. The prices seem to have more upside potential? But importantly Kim Eng must first break the psychological resistance of 2.5...

b) SMRT - after consolidating at 2 dollars for a few weeks, the stock price closed at 2.04 on fri, it looked like it is forming a bearish descending triangle formation (with much downside if stock price breaks the 2 dollars support)...

c) Wilmar - after announcement of "diversification" into hotels and properties in China, which was obviously poorly regarded by research firms and investors, Wilmar share price saw a beating last week before climbing 5 cents on fri. Do watch and see if the 5 cents increase is a "dead cat bounce" (very likely due to low buying volume) - similar to the one last fri (that saw her price close at 6.01)

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Stock Portfolio Updates - Dec 24

a) Ascendas Reit

-About to perform a "golden cross", stochastic rebound from oversold region, RSI around 45 (not overbought nor oversold)

-might have made a double bottom formation

-possible upside ahead...might buy more lots of ascendas reit

b) Ezra

-Performed a strong break out with strong volume last thu, retested support at 1.75 on fri...seems well supported

-might test resistance at 200ma at 1.81 or fall back to technical support at 1.75 or 50ma/100ma support at 1.73

-going to give dividend next week and RSI at around 55 (not overbought neither oversold)

-possible upside but have to remain cautious as candlestick is outside of upper bollinger bands

-wait and see approach

c) Mewah International

-fell with relatively small volume last week

-the cheo family have been accumulating this stock, so i am confident of her prospects

-not much technical analysis possible, but candlestick should find some support at 20dma around 0.99.

d) Sabana Reit

-fell with relatively small volume last week

-not much technical analysis possible, but candlestick should find some support at 20dma around 0.96.

-attractive dividend yield of over 8 percent

e) SPH

- on track to perform a "golden cross" next week or the week after next.

-RSI about 45 (not overbought nor oversold), stochastic rebounding from oversold region

-has for many trading sessions been trying to break resistance at 3.95 (100dma), closed at 3.95 on fri with small volume

-need further confirmation whether 3.95 resistance has indeed been broken by looking at how the stock perform on mon.

f) STX OSV

-RSI, stochastic, bollinger bands, all in oversold region.

-selling volume has been relatively small

g) Swiber

-made a gravestone doji on thu (reversal or continuation of bearish trend?) and formed a smaller gravestone doji on fri

-wait and see

Friday, December 24, 2010

Merry Christmas

Wishing all readers a merry Christmas!

May you and your family have a blessed Christmas!

Hope that the stock market gave you a nice Christmas present last week! :)

Cheers

ming

Sunday, December 19, 2010

On my radar - Dec 19

I am currently looking at the following stocks. I may or may not enter positions in the following stocks, or may just be looking at it for educational purposes. :)

a) Cambridge (Made a bullish 'golden cross' on friday)

b) Ezra (after a very strong break out of resistance last week...seems to be well supported at $1.7...may get more lots this week.)

c) GLP (Price rose strongly with strong volume on friday)

d) Golden Agri (One of my old favourites, has been falling recently...)

e) Kim Eng Holdings (May be taken-over by another company... good for educational purposes)

f) Noble Group (One of my old favourites, has been falling recently...)

g) Sabana Reit ( Steady rebound after touching 92.5 cents...may be good to buy more considering good dividend yield)

h) UOB Kay-Hian (cup and handle formation?)

i) Wilmar (made a bullish golden cross on friday)

My Current Portfolio - Dec 19

Below are companies that I have shares in:

a) Ascendas Reit
b) Ezra
c) Mewah
d) Sabana Reit
e) SPH
f) STX OSV
g) Swiber

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

8 reasons why do I invest (and start investing at a young age)?

1) I would be better off investing in stocks than putting the money in the bank (earning that paltry interest), fixed deposits (earning the paltry interest again), or with fund managers.

2) I hope to acquire the skills to analyse and pick good stocks on my own and monitor their prices.

3) I have a strong passion for stock investing and spotting that winning stock. (at least after 6 months of highs and lows in stock investing I am still in the trade)

4) I hope to major in business, accountancy or economics in university.

5) It gives me more options in life - I would like to start a business (if my entrepreneur spirit in me is somehow ignited...)

6) I hope to develop a critical understanding of financial markets and how they operate (beyond A levels economics) and what constitute a good business and good management.

7) I hope to develop my skills in technical analysis and the psychology of investors.

8) I hope to encourage my peers to start financial planning at a young age. (and of course people in the other age groups.